Hello, everyone… I am in Columbus, Ohio, for the rest of the week, supporting my daughter at the BIG10 college swimming and diving championships. I will try to provide written coverage, but I am unsure about videos yet.
SP500.
The S&P has managed to stage a close at new all-time highs today at 6129.58. This is in line with our expectations from last week when the market failed to break and close below its 50day moving average. On Feb 13th we also got a strong buying day on good volume. So far, the market is progressing as expected without doing anything wrong. Based on this, I have to keep the long exposure elevated and try to swing in and out of stocks that act well, create breaks, and have solid fundamentals.
A break back below that Feb 13th low, would be a major alarm signal to reduce exposure and play defense.
Nasdaq Composite.
The NDX100 closed to new ATH as well. The volume is telling us there is interest even tho today’s move was nothing spectacular. Both the RSI and PPO are heading in the right direction. As long as indices are moving higher trading stocks from the long side is the right approach. Keeping stocks thru earnings is a big risk that can be somewhat balanced with hedging via put buying in positions that make sense and one wants to hang on to. However, consider that major breaks of key levels or averages are usually a warning signal that a particular stock might take a while to recover. Getting out of bad trades and positions is the best way to keep a clear head and free capital.
Here is the QQEW - the equal-weight version of the QQQ that shows good interest in stocks outside the big well, known names with heavy weighting. Nice solid action.
Bitcoin
The action in Bitcoin is something else. These extremely tight conditions should lead to a big explosion in price sooner rather than later. Get ready. Market has a tendency to create a fakeout move before the real one begins .Let’s see what happens here but once above 99,000 it will be time to press the pedal. Of course we need to watch to failures. Last thing anyone wants is to be trapped and frozen once a move fails and reverses. Starting small and adding with further strength is a bit easier to manage then going full positions right of the bet. But this depends a bit on the instrument, its volatility, behavior, etc.
I will look at the wave counts tomorrow, but pls check prior videos for a reminder of those.
Cris
For those wanting to chat with fellow traders, the link is below.
Thanks for reading.
Cris
If you’re new to Elliott Wave or need to refresh, there is a 7-hour video course with downloadable slides under The Coarse tab on the website. Requires a yearly “Founding Member subscription.” You can find it HERE.
Cris
email: ewcafe@pm.me