The Daily Drip

Markets review, strategy and analysis

Note: The EW counts on the right edge are real-time, and they are prone to adjustments as price action develops. Elliott Wave has a fluid approach, is evidence-based, and requires constant monitoring of certain thresholds.

In the counts below, this (( )) = circle on chart

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Chart of the Day $BTCUSD - A very bullish pattern continues to develop in this asset. Even with a likely pause near ATH, it is poised for a significant break and travel to 100k and above.

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SP500

A quiet end to the month of February is taking place, with markets consolidating their gains near all-time highs. The three panels below show the NDX, SPX, and DOW30 in one chart. We have clear uptrends in place that had minor signs of violations last week but came back and made new highs. Still resilient and with no visible failures. At some point, we will correct some of this advance more or less. When we do, the signs will be there. It does not have to match but see the correction following the uptrend back in July-Aug 2023.

The two charts below show just one of the sectors out of 11 main sectors in the SP500. We’re looking at discretionary cap weight XLY and equal weight RSPD. They are suggesting breakouts and the equal weight has actually done it. The other is a bit slower due to Amazon and Tesla weightings, but it does seem to be en route. Keep an eye on all these 11 sectors as they can provide clues into the strength of the markets and overall participation.

Here is the basic bullish EW count at the weekly time frame. If we travel higher in wave ((iii)) toward the top of the channel, we’re looking at 5500 targets.

Here is the other version, “bearish near-term.” Notice both count the 2022 decline as wave (2) with bullish implications in the years to come. This last one looks for a slight correction of the “5 wave move” from the lows.